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China's display industry is rapidly advancing in the OLED market, with BOE supplying tandem OLEDs for Huawei's Mate 60, marking a significant shift in competition against South Korea. The Chinese market share in smartphone OLEDs surged to 47.3%, while Korea's dropped to 52.5%, driven by aggressive pricing and government subsidies. As Chinese companies like BOE expand their production capabilities, they are poised to challenge major customers like Apple, potentially reshaping the market landscape.
China continues to attract foreign investors, with UBS analysts projecting a six-percent rise in the Shanghai Composite index in 2025, driven by improved corporate earnings and policy support. Key sectors of interest include technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer staples. However, consumer and corporate confidence remains crucial for stimulating spending, particularly in the property market, where a shift from primary to secondary demand is noted amid concerns over price stability and project quality.
UBS strategists predict the US dollar will remain strong due to robust economic activity and tariff concerns affecting other regions. The DXY recently hit its highest level since November 2022, with potential for further gains if new tariffs are implemented, possibly pushing it between 110 and 115. However, they foresee a reversal in dollar strength in the latter half of 2025, with the EUR/USD expected to trade at 1.00 in March and 1.06 by December 2025.
Momentum is building globally for Bitcoin reserves, with support from policymakers in countries like Poland, Switzerland, South Africa, Hong Kong, Japan, and Venezuela. While some leaders advocate for adoption, skepticism remains, particularly in Japan where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has rejected the idea due to a lack of understanding. In Switzerland, a proposal to mandate the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin is underway, requiring 100,000 signatures by mid-2026.
UBS maintains that China remains appealing to foreign investors despite economic uncertainties, forecasting a 6% rise in the Shanghai Composite index by 2025, driven by non-financial sectors. The firm anticipates interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and government measures to stimulate the property market.Confidence among corporate executives and consumers is crucial for future spending and investment. In the property sector, buyers are cautious due to concerns over falling prices and project quality, prompting a shift in demand from primary to secondary markets.
China is taking measures to slow the depreciation of the yuan, which is under pressure from a strong dollar and US tariff threats. UBS's chief economist warns that while a weaker yuan could modestly boost exports, it may lead to competitive currency devaluations among China's rivals. The government is ramping up efforts to stabilize the currency amid concerns over capital outflows and financial instability, especially with potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration threatening trade.
China's stock market faces turmoil as retail investors, disillusioned by half-hearted government policies and U.S. trade uncertainties, rapidly sell off shares, leading to the weakest start to the year in a decade. With retail money accounting for 70% of trading, further selling could trigger a disorderly retreat, jeopardizing economic recovery efforts. Investors are now in a waiting game, anticipating more decisive policy changes amid ongoing volatility.
China is expected to implement a broad stimulus to counteract the impact of US tariffs, as the yuan faces downward pressure from a strong dollar and tariff threats. UBS Group AG's chief economist noted that while a weaker yuan could provide a slight boost to exports, it may prompt competitors to devalue their currencies, negating the benefits.
The Sensex plummeted by over 1,000 points, closing at 76,330, driven by unfavorable global cues, significant FII sell-offs, and a historic low for the rupee against the dollar. Rising Brent crude prices and concerns over inflation further dampened market sentiment ahead of the upcoming Union Budget 2025.
Iqbal Khan, Co-Head of GWM and Head of Business Asia-Pacific at UBS, emphasized growth and diversification as key priorities during the bank's "Greater China Conference" in Shanghai. He noted that the integration of Credit Suisse has strengthened UBS's position in Asia, equating to years of organic growth in Wealth Management. Khan highlighted the importance of navigating uncertainties while capitalizing on emerging opportunities, particularly in light of supportive government measures in China and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Chinese Yuan
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